Investor view
Risk-adjusted pipeline
Sites ranked by IRR under a ten-year cash flow with a GPU refresh in year five. Stress power prices, supply firmness, GPU-hour rates and the discount rate, or swap in the advisor's plans; every row recomputes as you move the sliders. The verdict column is the advisor's, not the model's.
Portfolio NPV
$71.6B
10 yr at 10%
Clearing 8% IRR
20 of 27
and not a no-go
Best IRR
15.3%
Applied Digital AI Factory campus
Median payback
3.6 yrs
NPV by country under these assumptions
| Site | Status | Capex | IRR ▼ | Δ vs base | NPV | Payback | Util. | EBITDA / yr | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applied Digital AI Factory campus Applied Digital · Finland | Proposed | $32.5B | 15.3% | 0.0 pt | $7.7B | 3.1 yrs | 71% | $10.4B | Conditional |
| Project Rainier Amazon / Anthropic · United States | Operational | $72.8B | 13.9% | 0.0 pt | $12.6B | 3.3 yrs | 69% | $22.1B | Conditional |
| Colossus xAI · United States | Operational | $10.0B | 13.9% | 0.0 pt | $1.7B | 3.3 yrs | 69% | $3.0B | Conditional |
| Prometheus Meta · United States | Under construction | $33.2B | 13.8% | 0.0 pt | $5.6B | 3.3 yrs | 69% | $10.0B | Conditional |
| Lordstown Stargate OpenAI / SoftBank · United States | Planned | $20.0B | 13.6% | 0.0 pt | $3.2B | 3.3 yrs | 69% | $6.0B | Conditional |
| Quincy campus Microsoft · United States | Operational | $16.8B | 13.0% | 0.0 pt | $2.2B | 3.4 yrs | 67% | $4.9B | Go |
| Loudoun County cluster Multiple operators · United States | Operational | $168.4B | 13.0% | 0.0 pt | $21.9B | 3.4 yrs | 69% | $49.6B | No go |
| Narvik AI campus Multiple operators · Norway | Planned | $9.8B | 12.6% | 0.0 pt | $1.1B | 3.4 yrs | 68% | $2.9B | No go |
| Shackelford County Stargate OpenAI / Oracle / Vantage · United States | Planned | $47.0B | 12.3% | 0.0 pt | $4.8B | 3.5 yrs | 65% | $13.5B | Go |
| Stargate Abilene OpenAI / Oracle / Crusoe · United States | Under construction | $40.3B | 12.3% | 0.0 pt | $4.1B | 3.5 yrs | 65% | $11.6B | Go |
| Council Bluffs Google · United States | Operational | $23.6B | 12.0% | 0.0 pt | $2.1B | 3.5 yrs | 65% | $6.7B | Conditional |
| Odense Meta · Denmark | Operational | $6.7B | 11.8% | 0.0 pt | $516M | 3.5 yrs | 66% | $1.9B | Go |
| Elsham Tech Park Elsham Tech Park Limited · United Kingdom | Planned | $33.0B | 11.4% | 0.0 pt | $2.0B | 3.5 yrs | 70% | $9.4B | No go |
| Hamina Google · Finland | Operational | $9.9B | 11.4% | 0.0 pt | $580M | 3.6 yrs | 62% | $2.8B | Go |
| Doña Ana County Stargate OpenAI / Oracle · United States | Planned | $34.0B | 11.3% | 0.0 pt | $1.8B | 3.6 yrs | 64% | $9.4B | Conditional |
| Hyperscale campus Hesse Multiple operators · Germany | Operational | $40.6B | 11.1% | 0.0 pt | $1.8B | 3.6 yrs | 71% | $11.3B | No go |
| Hyperion Meta · United States | Under construction | $67.5B | 10.9% | 0.0 pt | $2.6B | 3.7 yrs | 62% | $18.4B | Go |
| Dublin cluster Amazon Web Services · Ireland | Operational | $26.7B | 10.8% | 0.0 pt | $916M | 3.6 yrs | 65% | $7.3B | No go |
| Black Sea AI Gigafactory — · Romania | Proposed | $55.1B | 10.7% | 0.0 pt | $1.7B | 3.7 yrs | 67% | $14.7B | Conditional |
| Stargate UAE OpenAI / G42 / Oracle · United Arab Emirates | Under construction | $37.7B | 10.0% | 0.0 pt | $20.5M | 3.9 yrs | 66% | $9.8B | Go |
| Western Sydney campus Multiple operators · Australia | Under construction | $13.8B | 10.0% | 0.0 pt | −$17.3M | 3.8 yrs | 63% | $3.6B | Conditional |
| Humain hyperscale Humain / PIF · Saudi Arabia | Planned | $53.2B | 9.8% | 0.0 pt | −$497M | 3.8 yrs | 62% | $13.8B | Conditional |
| Johor Bahru cluster Multiple operators · Malaysia | Under construction | $53.0B | 9.7% | 0.0 pt | −$605M | 3.8 yrs | 62% | $13.8B | No go |
| Mesa campus Google · United States | Operational | $14.3B | 9.4% | 0.0 pt | −$341M | 3.9 yrs | 64% | $3.7B | Conditional |
| Fairwater Microsoft · United States | Under construction | $30.7B | 9.3% | 0.0 pt | −$854M | 3.9 yrs | 61% | $7.9B | Conditional |
| Sines campus Start Campus · Portugal | Under construction | $41.4B | 8.5% | 0.0 pt | −$2.6B | 4.0 yrs | 59% | $10.4B | Conditional |
| Hyderabad AI campus Multiple operators · India | Planned | $17.9B | 6.6% | 0.0 pt | −$2.5B | 4.3 yrs | 57% | $4.2B | Conditional |
27 sites. Every row is recomputed in the browser from the site's region profile and baseline spec as you move the sliders. "Δ vs base" compares against the unstressed estimate at the same discount rate.