Executive view
Portfolio and pipeline
Baseline estimates for every tracked site under its reported supply mix. Push the crew, automation and hardware decisions across the whole portfolio and watch schedule, capex and payback move. Conditions come from the advisor's latest verdicts.
Pipeline capex
$620.1B
17 sites not yet operational
Portfolio EBITDA / yr
$283.1B
Compute at build-out
36,467 PF
Median payback
3.6 yrs
Median time to live
46 mo
pipeline
Capex by country
Open conditions
- Black Sea AI Gigafactory
- Switch the supply from the proposed 50% grid and 50% nuclear mix to the only viable alternative shown, 50% gas and 50% solar, which lifts the environment score above the 45-point floor and removes dependence on grid headroom.
- Assemble and permit the land required for the facility and its solar supply beyond the 10 ha measured open at Cernavoda, with the full footprint secured before major construction starts.
- Contract firm gas and solar supply, water for cooling make-up, and grid backup arrangements so utilization and power costs hold close to the modelled levels.
- Applied Digital AI Factory campus
- Contract the viable SMR long-term supply — 70% nuclear and 30% grid — before land close, and cap grid draw at that share so grid load stays at 59%, below the 60% floor.
- Gate each of the six phases on firm power actually delivered, not on hall completion, so racks are only energized as nuclear and grid supply lands.
- Secure cooling make-up and municipal agreements tied to the surface water 309 metres from the site, plus published noise and traffic limits, before construction starts.
- Western Sydney campus
- Replace the proposed 65% grid and 35% solar mix with the viable Hydro PPA plus grid mix of 60% hydro and 40% grid, lifting the environment score from 33 to 51, above the 45 floor, and cutting emissions from 937 kt a year to 607 kt a year.
- Confirm the reduced grid draw stays at or below the 60% regional headroom floor, down from 61% as proposed, with a firm interconnection and rate-impact agreement before financial close.
- Secure a contracted municipal or well cooling water supply before construction, since no surface water was measured within proximity of the site, and confirm land control for the full facility and supply footprint beyond the 69 ha of measured open land.
- Sines campus
- Adopt a viable zero-grid energy mix instead of the proposed 35% grid mix, which draws 99% of regional headroom against a 60% floor.
- Assemble and secure the roughly 1,410 hectares needed for the facility and its gas and solar supply, beyond the 7 hectares of measured open land at the site.
- Lock in firm gas and solar supply, land close, and community commitments before each phase is energized, so utilization and the community score stay above their floors.
- Hyderabad AI campus
- Contract the hydro PPA plus grid mix shown viable before land close, so environment rises above the 45 floor and returns clear the 8% IRR floor.
- Assemble the land beyond the measured site needed for the facility and its supply, with title and access secured before construction starts.
- Secure a municipal or well cooling-water supply in writing, as no surface water was measured near the site.
- Humain hyperscale
- Adopt the viable Hydro PPA + grid mix — 60% hydro and 40% grid — instead of the as-proposed 65% grid and 35% solar mix, lifting the environment score above the 45 floor and bringing grid draw within the 60% maximum grid load share.
- Assemble the 223 hectares required for the hydro-backed configuration beyond the measured site, where 0 hectares of open land were measured, before land close and financial commitment.
- Secure a contracted municipal or well water supply for cooling, with a water offset agreement, as no surface water was measured within 1 kilometre of the site and annual use is about 20 million cubic metres.
- Lordstown Stargate
- Contract a firm hydro PPA for 60% of supply with 40% grid before land close, lifting the environment score above the 45 floor and cutting emissions to about 744 kt a year.
- Assemble enough land beyond the 44 ha of measured open land to reach the 79 ha the facility and its supply need, with permitting and a community agreement secured first.
- Keep grid draw consistent with the 60% maximum grid-load floor, rather than the 94% in the as-proposed case, and confirm rates and headroom with the utility in writing.
- Doña Ana County Stargate
- Adopt a viable low-carbon mix shown in the search, such as 50% nuclear, 30% solar and 20% wind, instead of the proposed 65% grid and 35% solar, so environment rises above the 45 floor and grid load falls within the 60% limit.
- Assemble the land required beyond the 77 hectares measured open at the site, secure a municipal or well water supply for cooling, and confirm that supply in writing before financial close.
- Lock in the nuclear, solar and wind supply, permits and interconnection or on-site delivery schedule on a timeline that supports the phased build and protects the 8% minimum IRR.
- Mesa campus
- A firm Hydro PPA plus grid agreement covering 60% hydro and 40% grid must be executed before land close, lifting environment to 55 and community to 48, both above their floors.
- Land beyond the 8 ha of measured open land must be assembled to reach the roughly 60 ha this supply configuration needs.
- A municipal or well water supply and offset agreement must be secured, since no surface water was measured within 0.7 km and Mesa sits in a high-stress, hot basin.
- Council Bluffs
- Adopt the viable Hydro PPA + grid mix at 60% hydro and 40% grid instead of the proposed 70% grid and 30% wind, lifting the environment score from 43 to 55, above the 45 floor, and the composite score from 62 to 68.
- Assemble and secure the full land requirement beyond the 3 ha of measured open land before land close, with the hydro configuration needing 93 ha in total.
- Contract the hydro PPA and confirm grid capacity for only the reduced grid share before construction, so the project no longer relies on a 77% draw on regional headroom above the 60% floor.
| Site | Status | MW | Capex ▼ | Live in | Critical path | Jobs build / perm | Revenue / yr | EBITDA / yr | Payback | IRR | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loudoun County cluster Multiple operators · United States | Operational | 4,720 | $168.4B | 149 mo | 32 construction phases | 2,000 / 3,635 | $54.3B | $49.6B | 3.4 yrs | 13% | No go |
| Project Rainier Amazon / Anthropic · United States | Operational | 2,077 | $72.8B | 75 mo | 14 construction phases | 2,000 / 1,605 | $23.7B | $22.1B | 3.3 yrs | 14% | Conditional |
| Hyperion Meta · United States | Under construction | 1,888 | $67.5B | 70 mo | 13 construction phases | 2,000 / 1,460 | $19.6B | $18.4B | 3.7 yrs | 11% | Go |
| Black Sea AI Gigafactory — · Romania | Proposed | 1,416 | $55.1B | 58 mo | 10 construction phases | 2,000 / 1,098 | $15.9B | $14.7B | 3.7 yrs | 11% | Conditional |
| Humain hyperscale Humain / PIF · Saudi Arabia | Planned | 1,596 | $53.2B | 60 mo | 11 construction phases | 2,000 / 1,098 | $14.7B | $13.8B | 3.8 yrs | 10% | Conditional |
| Johor Bahru cluster Multiple operators · Malaysia | Under construction | 1,596 | $53.0B | 61 mo | 11 construction phases | 2,000 / 1,098 | $14.7B | $13.8B | 3.8 yrs | 10% | No go |
| Shackelford County Stargate OpenAI / Oracle / Vantage · United States | Planned | 1,322 | $47.0B | 54 mo | 9 construction phases | 2,000 / 1,025 | $14.3B | $13.5B | 3.5 yrs | 12% | Go |
| Sines campus Start Campus · Portugal | Under construction | 1,133 | $41.4B | 49 mo | 8 construction phases | 2,000 / 880 | $11.1B | $10.4B | 4.0 yrs | 9% | Conditional |
| Hyperscale campus Hesse Multiple operators · Germany | Operational | 1,133 | $40.6B | 52 mo | 8 construction phases | 2,000 / 880 | $13.3B | $11.3B | 3.6 yrs | 11% | No go |
| Stargate Abilene OpenAI / Oracle / Crusoe · United States | Under construction | 1,133 | $40.3B | 49 mo | 8 construction phases | 2,000 / 880 | $12.3B | $11.6B | 3.5 yrs | 12% | Go |
| Stargate UAE OpenAI / G42 / Oracle · United Arab Emirates | Under construction | 1,064 | $37.7B | 48 mo | 8 construction phases | 2,000 / 735 | $10.4B | $9.8B | 3.9 yrs | 10% | Go |
| Doña Ana County Stargate OpenAI / Oracle · United States | Planned | 944 | $34.0B | 46 mo | 7 construction phases | 2,000 / 735 | $10.0B | $9.4B | 3.6 yrs | 11% | Conditional |
| Prometheus Meta · United States | Under construction | 944 | $33.2B | 46 mo | 7 construction phases | 2,000 / 735 | $10.8B | $10.0B | 3.3 yrs | 14% | Conditional |
| Elsham Tech Park Elsham Tech Park Limited · United Kingdom | Planned | 888 | $33.0B | 45 mo | 6 construction phases | 2,000 / 735 | $11.0B | $9.4B | 3.5 yrs | 11% | No go |
| Applied Digital AI Factory campus Applied Digital · Finland | Proposed | 888 | $32.5B | 42 mo | 6 construction phases | 2,000 / 735 | $11.1B | $10.4B | 3.1 yrs | 15% | Conditional |
| Fairwater Microsoft · United States | Under construction | 850 | $30.7B | 42 mo | 6 construction phases | 2,000 / 663 | $8.6B | $7.9B | 3.9 yrs | 9% | Conditional |
| Dublin cluster Amazon Web Services · Ireland | Operational | 710 | $26.7B | 46 mo | power supply | 2,000 / 590 | $8.2B | $7.3B | 3.6 yrs | 11% | No go |
| Council Bluffs Google · United States | Operational | 661 | $23.6B | 37 mo | 5 construction phases | 2,000 / 518 | $7.2B | $6.7B | 3.5 yrs | 12% | Conditional |
| Lordstown Stargate OpenAI / SoftBank · United States | Planned | 566 | $20.0B | 34 mo | 4 construction phases | 2,000 / 445 | $6.5B | $6.0B | 3.3 yrs | 14% | Conditional |
| Hyderabad AI campus Multiple operators · India | Planned | 532 | $17.9B | 32 mo | 4 construction phases | 1,920 / 373 | $4.5B | $4.2B | 4.3 yrs | 7% | Conditional |
| Quincy campus Microsoft · United States | Operational | 472 | $16.8B | 33 mo | 4 construction phases | 1,920 / 373 | $5.3B | $4.9B | 3.4 yrs | 13% | Go |
| Mesa campus Google · United States | Operational | 426 | $14.3B | 68 mo | power supply | 1,536 / 300 | $4.0B | $3.7B | 3.9 yrs | 9% | Conditional |
| Western Sydney campus Multiple operators · Australia | Under construction | 378 | $13.8B | 31 mo | 3 construction phases | 1,536 / 300 | $4.0B | $3.6B | 3.8 yrs | 10% | Conditional |
| Colossus xAI · United States | Operational | 283 | $10.0B | 30 mo | 2 construction phases | 1,152 / 228 | $3.2B | $3.0B | 3.3 yrs | 14% | Conditional |
| Hamina Google · Finland | Operational | 266 | $9.9B | 28 mo | 2 construction phases | 1,152 / 228 | $2.9B | $2.8B | 3.6 yrs | 11% | Go |
| Narvik AI campus Multiple operators · Norway | Planned | 266 | $9.8B | 29 mo | 2 construction phases | 1,152 / 228 | $3.2B | $2.9B | 3.4 yrs | 13% | No go |
| Odense Meta · Denmark | Operational | 178 | $6.7B | 30 mo | 2 construction phases | 768 / 155 | $2.1B | $1.9B | 3.5 yrs | 12% | Go |
The sliders apply the same crew, automation and hardware decision to every site and recompute the engine in the browser; the "Live in" delta is against each site's own plan.